§ 81.11 Use of uncertainty analysis in NIOSH-IREP.

(a) EEOICPA requires use of the uncertainty associated with the probability of causation calculation, specifically requiring the use of the upper 99% confidence interval (credibility limit) estimate of the probability of causation estimate. As described in the NCI document, ^[1] uncertainty from several sources is incorporated into the probability of causation calculation performed by NIOSH-IREP. These sources include uncertainties in estimating: radiation dose incurred by the covered employee; the radiation dose-cancer relationship (statistical uncertainty in the specific cancer risk model); the extrapolation of risk (risk transfer) from the Japanese to the U.S. population; differences in the amount of cancer effect caused by different radiation types (relative biological effectiveness or RBE); the relationship between the rate at which a radiation dose is incurred and the level of cancer risk produced (dose and dose rate effectiveness factor or DDREF); and, the role of non-radiation risk factors (such as smoking history).